Home Run Derby Predictions

Here’s what is going to happen: I’ll make my prediction, brag when I guess correctly, delete this post if I get it wrong. Fair enough, right?

First, let’s look at the field (alphabetical):

• Nelson Cruz, Rangers
• Prince Fielder, Brewers
• Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
• Ryan Howard, Phillies
• Brandon Inge, Tigers
• Joe Mauer, Twins
• Carlos Pena, Rays
• Albert Pujols, Cardinals

You figure Pujols is the odds-on favorite because he’s on a tear and the game is in St. Louis. Ryan Howard and Joe Mauer are also probably a safe bets. I’d love to see Adrian Gonzalez take home the title for some NL West love.

But my money is on the darkhorse, Carlos Pena. The guy can mash, and he’s pretty streaky (which can be a good thing). We see it happen every year: One of the participants gets red-hot, puts up a huge total, only to fall in the later stages due to fatigue. For no reason other than a hunch, I think Pena outlasts the fatigue and goes the distance.